Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs: 19 Sep – 1 Oct 2025

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Flagdid not disclose the how people were reached
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 13 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 576 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 8 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size576 “total of 576 registered voters (with a margin of error of +/- 4.08%) were determined to be likely to vote” (document, page 6)
Field start date2025-09-19 “survey in the series was fielded between September 19 and October 1, 2025 and focused on opinions” (document, page 2)
Field end date2025-10-01 “survey in the series was fielded between September 19 and October 1, 2025 and focused on opinions” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedNot disclosed
Who was surveyedrv “45% of Texas registered voters have a favorable opinion of President Donald Trump, while 52% have an” (document, page 4)
SponsorHobby School of Public Affairs (University of Houston) and the Executive Master of Public Administration Program, Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs (Texas Southern University). The document says they launched the survey project; it does not use the words sponsored, commissioned or paid for. “the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Executive Master of Public Administration Program in the Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University launched a five-year survey project” (document, page 2)
Margin of error4.08 “total of 576 registered voters (with a margin of error of +/- 4.08%) were determined to be likely to vote” (document, page 6)
Weightinggender, age, race/ethnicity, education (the document says matched to a sampling frame, not weighted) “The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education and are representative of the Texas registered voter population.” (document, page 2)
Party mix of the sampleRegistered voter population: Republicans 44%, Democrats 41%, Independents 13%, unsure 2%. “Republicans account for 44% of this population, Democrats for 41% and Independents for 13%, with 2% unsure of their partisan identification.” (document, page 5)
Age mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Table 1. Vote Intention in a Paxton-Cornyn-Hunt GOP Primary, Among Key Socio-Demographic Groups (%)” (document, page 8)
Where respondents came fromNot disclosed

Documents