Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Quantus Insights: 3 Jun – 4 Jun 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Quantus Insights.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 2 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 800 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 2 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size800 “Weighted percentages · N = 800 · eff. N = 785” (document, page 3)
Field start date2026-06-03 “Field Period: June 3 through June 4, 2026” (document, page 16)
Field end date2026-06-04 “Field Period: June 3 through June 4, 2026” (document, page 16)
How people were reachedtext-to-web “Mode: SMS/text to mobile” (document, page 16)
Who was surveyedlv “Population: Texas likely voters” (document, page 16)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error3.5 “effect of approximately 1.02. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, calculated using the Kish” (document, page 16)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sampleStrong Gop 28%; Swing 28%; Strong Democrat 18%; Lean Gop 14%; Lean Democrat 12% (weighted result, PARTY IDENTIFICATION table) “Strong Gop 28%” (document, page 5)
Age mix of the sample45–64 38%; 65+ 34%; 30–44 21%; 18–29 7% (weighted result, AGE table) “45–64 38%” (document, page 5)
Region mix of the sampleMetro type, not named regions: Urban 36%; Suburban 30%; Rural 27%; Town 7% (weighted result, METRO TYPE table) “Urban 36%” (document, page 5)
Ballot question wordingQ1, U.S. Senate vote choice question “If the 2026 general election for U.S. Senate in Texas were held today, for whom would you vote?” (document, page 3)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Crosstab Analysis” (document, page 6)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “Panel: Stratified random sampling via targeted voter file matching” (document, page 16)

Documents