Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Republican primary

UpONE Insights: 27 May – 28 May 2025

U.S. Senate, Republican primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by UpONE Insights.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 2 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 600 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 7 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size600 “N=600 Republican primary voters, May 27-28, 2025 (+ 4%). This survey was conducted via a mixed” (document, page 1)
Field start date2025-05-27 “N=600 Republican primary voters, May 27-28, 2025 (+ 4%). This survey was conducted via a mixed” (document, page 1)
Field end date2025-05-28 “N=600 Republican primary voters, May 27-28, 2025 (+ 4%). This survey was conducted via a mixed” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedmixed “mode methodology of live callers and text-to-web to cell phones with a sample selected from the” (document, page 1)
Who was surveyedNot disclosed
SponsorEducational Freedom Institute “On behalf of the Educational Freedom Institute, we recently conducted a Texas statewide survey of” (document, page 1)
Margin of error4 “May 27-28, 2025 (+ 4%)” (document, page 1)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Age mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderThe second ballot test came after the first. It was the informed test, where voters were asked to assume certain events. “voters were given a second ballot test after having them assume” (document, page 3)
Crosstabsyes “Support-Oppose Charter Expansion” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “a sample selected from the Texas voter file with GOP primary vote history” (document, page 1)

Documents