Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Republican primary runoff

Quantus Insights: 21 May – 23 May 2026

U.S. Senate, Republican primary runoff · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Quantus Insights.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 3 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,018 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 3 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1018 “Q1 If the Republican primary runoff election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? wtd. n = 1,018” (document, page 4)
Field start date2026-05-21 “preference. The survey included 1,018 likely Republican primary runoff voters, conducted by mobile-cell SMS outreach from May 21–23, 2026.” (document, page 2)
Field end date2026-05-23 “preference. The survey included 1,018 likely Republican primary runoff voters, conducted by mobile-cell SMS outreach from May 21–23, 2026.” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedtext-to-web “preference. The survey included 1,018 likely Republican primary runoff voters, conducted by mobile-cell SMS outreach from May” (document, page 2)
Who was surveyedlv “The survey included 1,018 likely Republican primary runoff voters” (document, page 2)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error3.5 “The full-sample margin of error is approximately ±3.5% at the 95% confidence level. After weighting, the effective sample size was 936, with a minor” (document, page 28)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sampleModeled Republican 100.0% “Modeled Republican 100.0%” (document, page 26)
Age mix of the sample18–29: 6; 30–44: 38; 45–64: 344; 65+: 630; total 1,018 (respondent counts per age group, from the crosstab Total (N) row) “Total (N) 6 38 344 630 1,018” (document, page 6)
Region mix of the sampleMedia market respondent counts (the document's only geographic breakdown): Dallas–Ft. Worth 346; Houston 214; Austin 82; San Antonio 92; Waco–Temple–Bryan 51; Tyler–Longview 41; Lubbock 20; Abilene–Sweetwater 20; Corpus Christi 20; Amarillo 20; Wichita Falls 13; Shreveport 18; El Paso 11; Odessa–Midland 15; Beaumont–Port Arthur 21; San Angelo 11; Sherman–Ada 6; Harlingen 14; Victoria 3; total 1,018. The document also gives an area (metro type) split on page 7 (Rural 356, Urban 244, Suburban 336, Town 82); I used the media market split as the region split. “Total (N) 536 442 40 1,018” (document, page 8)
Ballot question wordingIf the Republican primary runoff election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? “If the Republican primary runoff election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?” (document, page 4)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Response by Subgroup” (document, page 6)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “Stratified random sampling via targeted voter file matching” (document, page 28)

Documents