Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

YouGov: 5 Aug – 13 Aug 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · registered voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by YouGov.

Sources disagree

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed registered voters 82 days before the election
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 9 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,200 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 12 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1200 “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-08-05 “Field Dates: August 5-13, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-08-13 “Field Dates: August 5-13, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedonline-panel “population and the opt-in panel.” (document, page 57)
Who was surveyedrv “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
SponsorUniversity of Texas / Texas Politics Project “University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll” (document, page 48)
Margin of error2.83 “Margin of error: +/- 2.83% (3.58% adjusted for weighting) unless otherwise noted1” (document, page 1)
Weightinggender, age, race/ethnicity, years of education, home ownership (propensity score function); 2024 presidential vote choice, gender, age, race, education (post-stratification) “The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership.” (document, page 56)
Party mix of the samplePID3: Democrats 40%, Independents 10%, Republicans 50%. Pages 39-48 do not state the population (registered voters or otherwise). “Democrats 40” (document, page 46)
Age mix of the sampleAGE (AGEG): 18-29 17%; 30-44 25%; 45-64 35%; 65+ 23%. “18-29 17” (document, page 48)
Region mix of the sampleMETRO: Houston area 20%; Dallas-Fort Worth area 33%; San Antonio area 10%; Austin area 8%; another part of Texas 29%. (LOCATE also reports urban 30%, suburban 53%, rural 17%, but that is community type, not region.) “Yes, I live in the Houston area 20” (document, page 48)
Ballot question wordingIf the 2026 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican Ken Paxton”, “the Democrat James Talarico”, “the Libertarian Ted Brown”] the Republican Ken Paxton, the Democrat James Talarico, and the Libertarian Ted Brown, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-3] “If the 2026 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican Ken Paxton”, “the Democrat James Talarico”, “the Libertarian Ted Brown”] the Republican Ken Paxton, the Democrat James Talarico, and the Libertarian Ted Brown, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-3]” (document, page 29)
Question orderQuestions Q25A-Q25B are randomized in order. “[RANDOMIZE Q25A-Q25B]” (document, page 32)
Crosstabsyes “August 2026 Texas Statewide Survey Crosstabs” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came frompanel-vendor “The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 1.5 million U.S. residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys.” (document, page 56)

Documents