Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research: 15 Oct – 19 Oct 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkwe could not read the age mix of the sample in this poll's documents
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 5 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Flagsample of 100 is below the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 2 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size100 “only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. Interviews were conducted by bilingual” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-10-15 “Conducted October 15-19, 2026 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw &” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-10-19 “Conducted October 15-19, 2026 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw &” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedmixed “interviewers on landlines (205) and cellphones (1,303) or completed the survey online by” (document, page 1)
Who was surveyedlv “A subsample of 1,398 has been defined as likely voters (LV)” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot checked
Margin of error2 “Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points. A” (document, page 1)
Weightingage, race, education, area “weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables” (document, page 1)
Party mix of the sampleDemocrat 41%, Republican 52%, Independent/Other 7% (Likely Voters, 15-19 Oct 26) “15-19 Oct 26 41% 34 7 52 48 4 7” (document, page 8)
Age mix of the sampleNot checked
Region mix of the sampleNot checked
Ballot question wordingIf the Texas election for U.S. Senator were today, would you vote for: [IF DON'T KNOW: Do you lean closer to one candidate?] “If the Texas election for U.S. Senator were today, would” (document, page 3)
Question orderNot checked
Crosstabsyes “Talarico supporters” (document, page 4)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “randomly selected from a statewide voter file” (document, page 1)

Documents