Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research: 30 Aug – 1 Sep 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 3 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 895 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 9 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size895 “Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research completed a total of 895 interviews. In the weighted data,” (document, page 2)
Field start date2026-08-30 “Field dates: August 30 - September 1, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-09-01 “Field dates: August 30 - September 1, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedmixed “40% of the interviews were conducted via cell phone, 15% were conducted via landlines, and” (document, page 2)
Who was surveyedlv “TOTAL sample size Total likely voters 18+ - 895” (document, page 1)
SponsorAARP (named in the survey title; the document has no explicit 'sponsored by' or 'paid by' line) “AARP 2026 Texas Statewide Survey: Annotated” (document, page 1)
Margin of error3.3 “± 3.3 pct pts for total population” (document, page 1)
Weightinggeographic distribution, age, gender, education, race/ethnicity, 2024 election result “Several weights were used. Weighting on geographic distribution occurred in each survey based on 2022 voter turnout data from state turnout records and the Data Trust database. Age and gender weights were applied based on Data Trust voter registration database statistics. Education weights were applied based on ACS data and AP VoteCast data. Race/ethnicity weights were applied based on recent National Election Pool exit polls, AP VoteCast data, and Data Trust voter registration database statistics. 2024 election result weights were applied based on statewide results, recent National Election Pool exit polls, and AP VoteCast data.” (document, page 3)
Party mix of the sampleTotal sample: Republican 39, Independent or Unaffiliated 29, Democrat 28, Something Else 2, Don't Know/Refused 1 “Republican 39 48” (document, page 3)
Age mix of the sampleTotal sample: 18-34 18%, 35-44 15%, 45-54 17%, 55-64 22%, 65 and above 28%, Refused 0 (shown as '-') “65 And Above 28 48” (document, page 2)
Region mix of the sampleMedia market split as reported, Total column: Dallas-Ft. Worth 30, Houston 24, Austin 11, San Antonio 10, Waco-Temple-Bryan 4, Harlingen-Weslaco 3, Tyler-Longview 3, Corpus Christi 2, El Paso 2, Abilene-Sweetwater 2, Beaumont-Port Arthur 2, Sherman-Ada 1, Odessa-Midland 1, Amarillo 1, Lubbock 1, San Angelo 1, Shreveport 1, Laredo 0, Wichita Falls-Lawton 0, Victoria -. Caveat: the page does not say in words that this is the sample split; it is a table headed Media Market. “Media Market.” (document, page 14)
Ballot question wordingQ24 (U.S. Senate vote choice, asked first as the 'today' question; Q25 is the follow-up lean question for those who say Undecided). Candidates: Ken Paxton (Republican) and James Talarico (Democrat). “If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were (ROTATE) Ken Paxton, the Republican and James Talarico, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?” (document, page 7)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Total 50+” (document, page 14)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “Sampling was drawn randomly from a list of registered voters purchased from Data Trust” (document, page 3)

Documents