Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University): 21 Oct – 25 Oct 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University).

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 5 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 2,000 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 4 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size2000 “conducted a representative survey of 2,000 Texans who are likely to cast a ballot in the November 2026 general election” (document, page 2)
Field start date2026-10-21 “(in English and Spanish) between October 21 and October 25, 2026 by contacting a random” (document, page 2)
Field end date2026-10-25 “(in English and Spanish) between October 21 and October 25, 2026 by contacting a random” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedmixed “sample of Texas registered voters via SMS text messages through which the respondents were” (document, page 2)
Who was surveyedlv “Abbott is viewed favorably by 48% of likely voters and unfavorably by 51%, and Hinojosa is” (document, page 3)
SponsorTexas Southern University and philanthropic grants (Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, Texas Southern University) “The Center's research is funded by Texas Southern University and by philanthropic grants to the University.” (document, page 25)
Margin of error2.19 “2026 general election (margin of error of +/- 2.19%). This probability-based survey was fielded” (document, page 2)
Weightingdemographic, historical electoral, geographic benchmarks “adjusted via multidimensional calibration weighting using demographic, historical electoral, and geographic benchmarks” (document, page 2)
Party mix of the sample40% Republican, 31% Democratic, 24% Independent, 4% another party or group, 1% unsure “The distribution of partisan identifiers among these likely voters is 40% Republican, 31% Democratic and 24% Independent, with 4% identifying with another party or group, and 1% unsure of their partisanship.” (document, page 4)
Age mix of the sample18-34: 18%; 35-54: 34%; 55+: 48% “Almost one-fifth (18%) of the population is between the ages of 18 and 34, 34% is between the ages of 35 and 54, and 48% is age 55 and older.” (document, page 4)
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderFavorability questions about statewide candidates were asked before the vote intention questions. “In the survey, before the respective vote intention questions were asked, these Texas likely voters were queried about whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the 16” (document, page 23)
Crosstabsyes “Table 1 provides the vote intention in the Texas U.S. Senate race, broken down by ethnicity/race, gender, age, education, partisanship and vote intention in the November 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.” (document, page 6)
Where respondents came fromNot checked

Documents