Texas poll check

Governor, Republican primary

YouGov: 2 Feb – 16 Feb 2026

Governor, Republican primary · registered voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by YouGov.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Flagsurveyed registered voters, not likely voters, 15 days before the election (threshold 60)
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 15 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,300 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 9 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1300 “N=1300 Registered Voters. In addition, results for the 2026 primary election items include an” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-02-02 “Field Dates: February 2-16, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-02-16 “Field Dates: February 2-16, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedonline-panel “population and the opt-in panel.” (document, page 55)
Who was surveyedrv “N=1300 Registered Voters. In addition, results for the 2026 primary election items include an” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot checked
Margin of error2.72 “Margin of error: +/- 2.72% unless otherwise noted1” (document, page 1)
Weightingage, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education (propensity score); baseline 2024 presidential vote; four-category age, four-category race, gender, four-category education (post-stratification). Registered-voter sample weights. “The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, and years of education.” (document, page 53)
Party mix of the samplePID3: Democrats 43%, Independents 8%, Republicans 49% “Democrats 43” (document, page 43)
Age mix of the sample18-29: 16%, 30-44: 25%, 45-64: 33%, 65+: 26% “18-29 16” (document, page 45)
Region mix of the sampleMetro area (METRO): Houston 22%, Dallas-Fort Worth 31%, San Antonio 10%, Austin 8%, other part of Texas 29%. Community type (LOCATE): Urban 33%, Suburban 52%, Rural 15%. “Yes, I live in the Houston area 22” (document, page 45)
Ballot question wordingIf the 2026 Republican primary election for governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? “If the 2026 Republican primary election for governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?” (document, page 31)
Question orderFor Q20R to Q23D, respondents were first asked the ballot question. Only if they answered don't know, they were then asked a follow-up question. This note covers the don't-know follow-up on the ballot items; it does not describe the order of the whole survey. “respondents were first asked the questions below. If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question” (document, page 31)
Crosstabsyes “February 2026 Texas Statewide Survey Crosstabs” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came frompanel-vendor “Second, for each member of the target sample, we select one or more matching members from our pool of opt-in respondents.” (document, page 55)

Documents