Texas poll check

Governor, general election

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov: 18 Sep – 28 Sep 2026

Governor, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Could not checkwe read only a page about this poll, not the pollster's own release, so we cannot say what the pollster disclosed
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Could not checkwe read only a page about this poll, not the pollster's own release, so we cannot say what the pollster disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Could not checkwe read only a page about this poll, not the pollster's own release, so we cannot say what the pollster disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Could not checkfield dates not on the page we read (see the basic-method rule)
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 850 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Could not checkfield end or first listing date not known

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size850 “The survey of 850 likely Texas voters shows Talarico and Paxton tied with 45% support each and 7% of respondents undecided.” (document, page 1)
Field start dateNot on the page we read
Field end dateNot on the page we read
How people were reachedonline-panel “Funded by UMass Lowell, the nonpartisan online survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.” (document, page 1)
Who was surveyedlv ““A majority of Texas likely voters say it has become harder to afford basic necessities, and more than eight in 10 identify the war in Iran or tariffs as the main reason for higher fuel and utility prices. These are not encouraging numbers for an incumbent during an election cycle. When voters connect rising costs at home with specific government policies, those concerns can become politically consequential, potentially punishing the party in power,” said Political Science Associate Professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, the center’s associate director.” (document, page 1)
SponsorUMass Lowell “Funded by UMass Lowell, the nonpartisan online survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov.” (document, page 1)
Margin of error4.5 “Fielded from Sept. 18 through Sept. 28, the poll carries an adjusted margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.” (document, page 1)
WeightingNot on the page we read
Party mix of the sampleNot on the page we read
Age mix of the sampleNot on the page we read
Region mix of the sampleNot on the page we read
Ballot question wordingNot on the page we read
Question orderNot on the page we read
CrosstabsNot on the page we read
Where respondents came fromNot on the page we read

Documents