U.S. Senate, Republican primary
Ragnar Research Partners: 20 Sep – 22 Sep 2025
U.S. Senate, Republican primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Ragnar Research Partners.
Rules
| Rule | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. | Could not check | no measured benchmark for this state yet |
| The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. | Withheld | decided by a wording judge that is not built or measured |
| Did not disclose crosstabs. | Could not check | we read only a page about this poll, not the pollster's own release, so we cannot say what the pollster disclosed |
| Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. | Could not check | we read only a page about this poll, not the pollster's own release, so we cannot say what the pollster disclosed |
| Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. | Could not check | we read only a page about this poll, not the pollster's own release, so we cannot say what the pollster disclosed |
| Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67 |
| Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. | Clear | surveyed likely voters |
| Fielded in a single day. | Could not check | field dates not on the page we read (see the basic-method rule) |
| Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). | Could not check | sample size not on the page we read (see the basic-method rule) |
| Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60 |
| First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. | Could not check | field end or first listing date not known |
What the poll's documents state
| Fact | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Sample size | Not on the page we read | |
| Field start date | Not on the page we read | |
| Field end date | Not on the page we read | |
| How people were reached | Not on the page we read | |
| Who was surveyed | Not on the page we read | |
| Sponsor | One Nation showed Cornyn and Paxton tied in a head-to-head matchup | “The new poll commissioned by One Nation showed Cornyn and Paxton tied in a head-to-head matchup.” (document, page 1) |
| Margin of error | 3.6 | “Ragnar Research conducted the new One Nation survey of the primary from Sept. 20 to Sept. 22, and the survey has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.” (document, page 1) |
| Weighting | Not on the page we read | |
| Party mix of the sample | Not on the page we read | |
| Age mix of the sample | Not on the page we read | |
| Region mix of the sample | Not on the page we read | |
| Ballot question wording | Not on the page we read | |
| Question order | Not on the page we read | |
| Crosstabs | Not on the page we read | |
| Where respondents came from | Not on the page we read |
Documents
- Article or page: https://www.notus.org/2026-election/one-nation-poll-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-primary-matchup (kept a copy)