Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.: 8 Sep – 10 Sep 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc..

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 3 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 625 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 5 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size625 “A total of 625 registered Texas voters were interviewed live by telephone statewide.” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-09-08 “Florida from September 8 through September 10, 2026. A total of 625” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-09-10 “Florida from September 8 through September 10, 2026. A total of 625” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedlive-phone “voter registration list that included both land line and cell phone numbers.” (document, page 1)
Who was surveyedlv “All indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2026 general election.” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error4 “The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points.” (document, page 1)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sampleDemocrat 176 (28%); Republican 226 (36%); Independent or Other 223 (36%). Caveat: page 20 does not label the population (it does not say likely voters or the Senate race). “Democrat 176 (28%)” (document, page 20)
Age mix of the sample18-34 120 (19%); 35-49 158 (25%); 50-64 165 (26%); 65+ 175 (28%); Refused 7 (1%). Caveat: page 20 does not label the population. “18-34 120 (19%)” (document, page 20)
Region mix of the sampleEast Texas 45 (7%); Dallas/Fort Worth 165 (26%); Houston Metro 145 (23%); Central Texas 80 (13%); South Texas 100 (16%); West Texas 90 (14%). Caveat: page 20 does not label the population. “East Texas 45 (7%)” (document, page 20)
Ballot question wordingIf the 2026 election for Texas’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for: “QUESTION: If the 2026 election for Texas’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for: (ORDER ROTATED)” (document, page 3)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “PARTY IDENTIFICATION” (document, page 3)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “Those interviewed were selected randomly from a telephone-matched Texas voter registration list that included both land line and cell phone numbers.” (document, page 1)

Documents