Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Republican primary

University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs: 20 Jan – 31 Jan 2026

U.S. Senate, Republican primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Flagdid not disclose the how people were reached
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 12 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,502 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 9 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1502 “the November 2026 General Election analysis consists of 1,502 likely voters (with a margin of error of” (document, page 2)
Field start date2026-01-20 “The survey was conducted in English and Spanish between January 20 and January 31, 2026.” (document, page 2)
Field end date2026-01-31 “The survey was conducted in English and Spanish between January 20 and January 31, 2026.” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedNot disclosed
Who was surveyedlv “the November 2026 General Election analysis consists of 1,502 likely voters (with a margin of error of” (document, page 2)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error2.53 “the November 2026 General Election analysis consists of 1,502 likely voters (with a margin of error of +/- 2.53%), the study population for the March 2026 Republican primary analysis consists of 550 likely” (document, page 2)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sampleRepublicans 89%, Independents 6%, Democrats 5% (March 2026 Republican primary population) “Republicans account for 89% of this population, Independents for 6% and Democrats for 5%.” (document, page 5)
Age mix of the sampleSilent Generation/Baby Boomer 41%, Gen-X 28%, Millennial/Gen-Z 31% (March 2026 Republican primary population, by generation) “Regarding generations, 41% of this population belongs to the combined Silent Generation (born between 1928-1945) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964) cohort, 28% to Generation X (Gen-X) (1965-1980), and 31% to a combined Millennial (1981-1996) and Generation Z (Gen-Z) (1997-2012) cohort.” (document, page 5)
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Table 6. The Two Most Important Policy Issue For the November 2026 Vote Decision of Texas Likely Voters (%)” (document, page 20)
Where respondents came fromNot disclosed

Documents