Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Republican primary

Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University): 6 Aug – 12 Aug 2025

U.S. Senate, Republican primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University).

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 7 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,500 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Flagfirst listed 24 days after fieldwork ended (threshold 21)

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1500 “conducted a representative survey of 1,500 likely 2026 Texas Republican primary voters” (document, page 2)
Field start date2025-08-06 “of +/- 2.53%) between August 6 and August 12, 2025.” (document, page 2)
Field end date2025-08-12 “of +/- 2.53%) between August 6 and August 12, 2025.” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedmixed “registered voters via SMS text messages through which the respondents were directed to an” (document, page 4)
Who was surveyedrv “registered voters via SMS text messages through which the respondents were directed to an” (document, page 4)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error2.53 “of error of +/- 2.53%) and of 1,500 likely 2026 Texas Democratic primary voters (margin of error of +/- 2.53%) between August 6 and August 12, 2025.” (document, page 2)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sample72% Republican, 15% Independent but leaning toward the Republican Party, 10% Independent, 3% Democratic, something else or unsure “The distribution of partisan identifiers among these likely Republican primary voters is 72% Republican, 15% Independent but leaning toward the Republican Party, 10% Independent, and 3% either identifying as Democratic, something else or unsure.” (document, page 4)
Age mix of the sample18-34: 8%; 35-54: 25%; 55 and older: 67% “A little less than one-tenth (8%) of the population is between the ages of 18 and 34, 25% is between the ages of 35 and 54, and 67% is age 55 and older.” (document, page 4)
Region mix of the sampleDallas-Fort Worth metro: 28%; Houston metro: 23%; San Antonio metro: 9%; Austin metro: 6%; other regions of the state: 34% “A little more than one-fourth (28%) of these likely 2026 Republican primary voters live in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro statistical area, 23% live in the Houston metro area, 9% live in the San Antonio metro area, 6% live in the Austin metro area, and 34% live in other regions of the state.” (document, page 4)
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Table 1. Vote Intention in a Paxton-Cornyn Republican Primary, Among Sub-Groups (%)” (document, page 12)
Where respondents came fromNot disclosed

Documents