Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

YouGov: 10 Apr – 20 Apr 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · registered voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by YouGov.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed registered voters 197 days before the election
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 11 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,200 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 9 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1200 “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-04-10 “Field Dates: April 10-20, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-04-20 “Field Dates: April 10-20, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedonline-panel “population and the opt-in panel.” (document, page 48)
Who was surveyedrv “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot checked
Margin of error2.83 “Margin of error: +/- 2.83% (3.35% adjusted for weighting) unless otherwise noted1” (document, page 1)
Weightinggender, age, race/ethnicity, education, 2024 presidential vote choice “The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 Presidential vote choice, and a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.” (document, page 47)
Party mix of the samplePID3 (page 38): Democrats 40, Independents 10, Republicans 50. Pages 34-45 do not label this as registered voters, and they contain no Senate race. “Democrats 40 Independents 10 Republicans 50” (document, page 38)
Age mix of the sampleAGEG (page 40): 18-29 16%; 30-44 25%; 45-64 34%; 65+ 25%. Pages 34-45 do not label this as registered voters, and they contain no Senate race. “18-29 16” (document, page 40)
Region mix of the sampleMETRO (page 40): Houston area 19; Dallas-Fort Worth area 33; San Antonio area 11; Austin area 9; another part of Texas 28. LOCATE (same page, urban/suburban/rural, not a region): Urban 32; Suburban 50; Rural 17. Pages 34-45 do not label this as registered voters, and they contain no Senate race. “Yes, I live the Dallas-Fort Worth area 33” (document, page 40)
Ballot question wordingQ21 (Senate, Cornyn vs. Talarico): "If the 2026 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were John Cornyn and James Talarico, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Q22 uses the same wording with Ken Paxton in place of John Cornyn. “Q21. If the 2026 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “John Cornyn”, “James Talarico”] John Cornyn and James Talarico, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?” (document, page 27)
Question orderQuestions Q21 and Q22 were randomized in order. “[RANDOMIZE Q21-Q22]” (document, page 27)
Crosstabsyes “April 2026 Texas Statewide Survey Crosstabs” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came frompanel-vendor “The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 1.5 million U.S. residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys.” (document, page 47)

Documents