Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Democratic primary

Slingshot Strategies: 14 Jan – 21 Jan 2026

U.S. Senate, Democratic primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Slingshot Strategies.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Flagdid not disclose the field start date, field end date
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Could not checkfield dates not disclosed (see the basic-method rule)
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,290 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Could not checkfield end or first listing date not known

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1290 “surveyed 1290 likely Democratic primary voters in Texas” (document, page 1)
Field start dateNot disclosed
Field end dateNot disclosed
How people were reachedmixed “oversample of 300 Latino voters, from January 14th through 21st, and was conducted using web panel and SMS. The poll has a” (document, page 1)
Who was surveyedlv “Likely Democratic primary voters are statistically tied between US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (38%)” (document, page 14)
SponsorTexas Public Opinion Research (TPOR); conducted by Slingshot Strategies “The poll, conducted by Slingshot Strategies for TPOR” (document, page 1)
Margin of error3.7 “margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, race, education, and age. Respondents were also” (document, page 1)
Weightinggender, race, education, age, whether passed attention checks, modeled modal effects “The data was weighted by gender, race, education, and age.” (document, page 1)
Party mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Age mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingIf the 2026 Democratic primary election for the U.S. Senate was held today, for whom would you vote? “If the 2026 Democratic primary election for the U.S. Senate was held today, for whom would you vote?” (document, page 14)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Democratic Senate Primary” (document, page 15)
Where respondents came frompanel-vendor “was conducted using web panel and SMS” (document, page 1)

Documents