Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Quantus Insights: 9 Oct – 11 Oct 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Quantus Insights.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 3 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 854 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 2 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size854 “October 9–11, 2026 854 Likely voters ±3.6” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-10-09 “October 9–11, 2026 854 Likely voters ±3.6” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-10-11 “October 9–11, 2026 854 Likely voters ±3.6” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedtext-to-web “likely-voter screen was used to define and weight the survey population, through SMS invitations sent to mobile phones. Of 854 completed” (document, page 3)
Who was surveyedlv “October 9–11, 2026 854 Likely voters ±3.6” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of errorNot checked
Weightingsex, age range, race and ethnicity (modeled), education (modeled), metro type, media market “on six dimensions: sex, age range, race and ethnicity (modeled), education (modeled), metro type and media market.” (document, page 3)
Party mix of the sampleModeled party ID sample counts (n) for the Q3 Paxton favorability base of 839 voters: Republican n=374, Democrat n=292, Independent n=173. The page labels party ID as MODELED. “Republican 83 15 2 374” (document, page 18)
Age mix of the sample18–29: 10.4%; 30–44: 23.1%; 45–64: 36.5%; 65+: 30.0% (full reporting base of 854) “18–29 10.4 n=89” (document, page 5)
Region mix of the sampleMedia market sample counts (n) for the Q3 base of 839 voters: Dallas–Ft. Worth n=261, Houston n=197, Austin n=87, San Antonio n=86, Waco–Temple–Bryan n=35 (base under 80), Tyler–Longview n=22 (base under 80), Rest of state n=151. The same page also gives metro type counts: Urban 290, Suburban 317, Rural 177, Town 55. “Dallas–Ft. Worth 36 62 2 261” (document, page 18)
Ballot question wordingIf the election for U.S. Senate in Texas were held today, who would you vote for? “If the election for U.S. Senate in Texas were held today, who would you vote for?” (document, page 9)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Women 46 49 6 442” (document, page 24)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “Active registered Texas voter-file records.” (document, page 3)

Documents