U.S. Senate, Republican primary
Emerson College: 11 Aug – 12 Aug 2025
U.S. Senate, Republican primary · registered voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Emerson College.
Rules
| Rule | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. | Could not check | we could not read the age mix of the sample in this poll's documents |
| The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. | Withheld | decided by a wording judge that is not built or measured |
| Did not disclose crosstabs. | Could not check | we could not read the crosstabs in this poll's documents |
| Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. | Clear | sample size, field dates and mode stated on a page about this poll |
| Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. | Clear | weighting stated on a page about this poll |
| Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67 |
| Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. | Clear | surveyed registered voters 203 days before the election |
| Fielded in a single day. | Clear | fielded over 2 days |
| Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). | Clear | sample of 1,000 meets the threshold of 400 |
| Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60 |
| First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. | Clear | first listed 3 days after fieldwork ended |
What the poll's documents state
| Fact | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Sample size | 1000 | “The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted August 11-12, 2025. The overall sample of Texas active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The 2026 Republican Primary consists of n=491, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.4%. The 2026 Democratic Primary consists of n=370, with a credibility interval of 5.1%.” (document, page 1) |
| Field start date | 2025-08-11 | “The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted August 11-12, 2025. The overall sample of Texas active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The 2026 Republican Primary consists of n=491, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.4%. The 2026 Democratic Primary consists of n=370, with a credibility interval of 5.1%.” (document, page 1) |
| Field end date | 2025-08-12 | “The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted August 11-12, 2025. The overall sample of Texas active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The 2026 Republican Primary consists of n=491, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.4%. The 2026 Democratic Primary consists of n=370, with a credibility interval of 5.1%.” (document, page 1) |
| How people were reached | mixed | “Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text and email (list provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Commonwealth Opinions Panel and CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.” (document, page 1) |
| Who was surveyed | rv | “The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted August 11-12, 2025. The overall sample of Texas active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The 2026 Republican Primary consists of n=491, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.4%. The 2026 Democratic Primary consists of n=370, with a credibility interval of 5.1%.” (document, page 1) |
| Sponsor | Emerson College | “This survey was funded by Emerson College.” (document, page 1) |
| Margin of error | 3 | “The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted August 11-12, 2025. The overall sample of Texas active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The 2026 Republican Primary consists of n=491, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.4%. The 2026 Democratic Primary consists of n=370, with a credibility interval of 5.1%.” (document, page 1) |
| Weighting | gender, education, race, age, party registration, region | “The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.” (document, page 1) |
| Party mix of the sample | Could not read | |
| Age mix of the sample | Could not read | |
| Region mix of the sample | Could not read | |
| Ballot question wording | Could not read | |
| Question order | Could not read | |
| Crosstabs | Could not read | |
| Where respondents came from | mixed | “Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text and email (list provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Commonwealth Opinions Panel and CINT.” (document, page 1) |
Documents
- Article or page: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-cornyn-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-for-gop-senate-nomination/ (kept a copy)
- Crosstabs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oN_GMJtKXjO8uGFFxPcOSN4LppkcXbz6/export?format=xlsx (kept a copy)