Texas poll check

Governor, general election

ReconMR/Siena Research Institute: 1 Jun – 4 Jun 2026

Governor, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by ReconMR/Siena Research Institute.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Could not checkwe could not read the weighting in this poll's documents
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 4 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 807 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 5 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size807 “This Texas Poll was conducted by ReconMR from June 1 - 4, 2026, among 807 Likely Texas Voters. Of the 807 respondents, 807 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode. Telephone calls were” (document, page 9)
Field start date2026-06-01 “June 1 - 4, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-06-04 “June 1 - 4, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedlive-phone “This Texas Poll was conducted by ReconMR from June 1 - 4, 2026, among 807 Likely Texas Voters. Of the 807 respondents, 807 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode. Telephone calls were” (document, page 9)
Who was surveyedlv “807 Likely Texas Voters” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error4 “a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting.” (document, page 9)
WeightingNot checked
Party mix of the sampleDemocrat 27%, Republican 38%, Independent,Other 33% “Democrat 27% Republican 38% Independent,Other 33%” (document, page 9)
Age mix of the sample18 to 34: 7%. 35 to 49: 22%. 50 to 64: 30%. 65 and older: 38%. “18 to 34 7%” (document, page 9)
Region mix of the sampleAustin 9%. Dallas/Ft. Worth 23%. Houston 20%. Rural 33%. San Antonio/South 15%. “Austin 9%” (document, page 9)
Ballot question wordingIf the election for Governor of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: “Q20. If the election for Governor of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: [ROTATE CHOICES]” (document, page 4)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “TXP1LV Crosstabs_June Release” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came fromNot checked

Documents