Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Marist University: 17 Sep – 20 Sep 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · registered voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Marist University.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Flagsurveyed registered voters, not likely voters, 44 days before the election (threshold 60)
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 4 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,139 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 3 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1139 “Results for registered voters (n=1,139) are statistically significant within ±4.4 percentage points. Margins of error for” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-09-17 “Marist Poll Texas Registered Voters. Interviews conducted September 17 - 20, 2026. Totals” (document, page 2)
Field end date2026-09-20 “Marist Poll Texas Registered Voters. Interviews conducted September 17 - 20, 2026. Totals” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedmixed “design: By phone using live interviewers (203), by text (692), or online (244). All potential respondents were screened for” (document, page 1)
Who was surveyedrv “Methodology: Marist Poll of 1,139 Texas Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
SponsorMarist University (the Marist Poll is funded by Marist University) “The Marist Poll is an educational program in public opinion research and funded by Marist University.” (document, page 1)
Margin of error4.4 “Results for registered voters (n=1,139) are statistically significant within ±4.4 percentage points.” (document, page 1)
Weightingage, gender, income, race/ethnicity, education, region “data was balanced to match current estimates for registered voters by age, gender, income, and race/ethnicity using L2 voter parameters.” (document, page 1)
Party mix of the sampleDemocrat 33%, Republican 39%, Independent 25% “The partisan breakdown for this survey among registered voters is 33% Democrat, 39% Republican, and 25% independent.” (document, page 1)
Age mix of the sample18 to 29: 17%; 30 to 44: 26%; 45 to 64: 32%; 65 or older: 25% “18 to 29 17%” (document, page 2)
Region mix of the sampleEast 15%, Dallas/Ft. Worth Area 21%, Houston Area 20%, South Central 18%, West 12%, Southwest 15% “East 15%” (document, page 2)
Ballot question wordingIn November's election for Senate, are you supporting: James Talarico, the Democrat; Ken Paxton, the Republican; Other; Undecided/Refused “In November's election for Senate, are you supporting:” (document, page 6)
Question orderNot checked
Crosstabsyes “TRUDP105B. Weighted Crosstab” (document, page 3)
Where respondents came frommixed “The telephone sample was randomly selected from L2’s registered voter database of Texas. The online sample was randomly selected from aggregated online panels whose members had been matched by Cint to the same L2 database.” (document, page 1)

Documents