Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

YouGov: 28 Sep – 5 Oct 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by YouGov.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Could not checkwe could not read the weighting in this poll's documents
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 8 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 3,625 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 1 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size3625 “3,625 Texas Likely Voters” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-09-28 “Conducted September 28 - October 5, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-10-05 “Conducted September 28 - October 5, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedtext-to-web “Stratified random sample of voters selected from a list of Texas registered voters who were contacted via text mes-” (document, page 12)
Who was surveyedlv “Texas General Election 2026 – Likely Voters” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error3 “Margin of Error ±3%” (document, page 1)
WeightingNot checked
Party mix of the sampleDemocrat 26%; Republican 41%; Independent 28%; Other 3%; Not sure 2% (question 5, total sample) “5. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?” (document, page 1)
Age mix of the sample18-29 13%; 30-44 24%; 45-64 35%; 65+ 28% “10. Respondent age by category” (document, page 2)
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingWho [did / will / would] you vote for in the election for U.S. Senator? “6. Who [did / will / would] you vote for in the election for U.S. Senator?” (document, page 2)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “5. Texas Senate Vote 2026” (document, page 8)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “Stratified random sample of voters selected from a list of Texas registered voters” (document, page 12)

Documents