Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Democratic primary

HIT Strategies: 6 Jan – 15 Jan 2026

U.S. Senate, Democratic primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by HIT Strategies.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 10 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,005 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Flagfirst listed 371 days after fieldwork ended (threshold 21)

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1005 “Total n=1005 Likely Democratic Mixed mode: Survey was conducted through a mixed-mode Total MoE is: ± 3.21 January 6 – 15, 2025” (document, page 2)
Field start date2025-01-06 “Total n=1005 Likely Democratic Mixed mode: Survey was conducted through a mixed-mode Total MoE is: ± 3.21 January 6 – 15, 2025” (document, page 2)
Field end date2025-01-15 “Total n=1005 Likely Democratic Mixed mode: Survey was conducted through a mixed-mode Total MoE is: ± 3.21 January 6 – 15, 2025” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedmixed “Primary voters (Voted 1+4 Dem live calling (cellphones and landlines) and text-to-web online” (document, page 2)
Who was surveyedrv “Black voters, Latino voters, and young voters that have eroded from Dems the CVAP Registered Voters Voted 2024 Voted 2022” (document, page 7)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error3.21 “Total MoE is: ± 3.21” (document, page 2)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Age mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingIf the Democratic Primary for Senate were held today, for whom would you vote – Ahmad Hassan, Jasmine Crockett, James Talarico or are you undecided? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to choose, for whom would you vote? “If the Democratic Primary for Senate were held today, for whom would you vote – Ahmad Hassan, Jasmine Crockett, James Talarico or are you undecided? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to choose, for whom would you vote?” (document, page 4)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Crockett decisively leads Talarico in the horserace and leads across ALL key demographics.” (document, page 4)
Where respondents came fromNot checked

Documents