Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

YouGov: 25 Sep – 5 Oct 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by YouGov.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkwe could not read the age mix of the sample in this poll's documents
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 11 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,200 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 9 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1200 “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-09-25 “Field Dates: September 25 - October 5, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-10-05 “Field Dates: September 25 - October 5, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedonline-panel “population and the opt-in panel.” (document, page 64)
Who was surveyedrv “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot checked
Margin of error2.83 “Margin of error: +/- 2.83% (3.63% adjusted for weighting) unless otherwise noted1” (document, page 1)
Weightinggender, age, race, education, 2024 presidential vote choice “The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 Presidential vote choice, a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories)” (document, page 63)
Party mix of the sampleNot checked
Age mix of the sampleNot checked
Region mix of the sampleNot checked
Ballot question wordingIf the 2026 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [the Republican Ken Paxton, the Democrat James Talarico, and the Libertarian Ted Brown, in randomized order], who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion? (Options: the Democrat James Talarico; the Republican Ken Paxton; the Libertarian Ted Brown; Someone else; Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion.) “If the 2026 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were” (document, page 34)
Question orderRespondents were first asked the Q21F question (the Senate ballot question). Only if they said they didn’t know were they then asked a follow-up question. “respondents were first asked the questions below” (document, page 34)
Crosstabsyes “October 2026 Texas Statewide Survey Crosstabs” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came frompanel-vendor “The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 1.5 million U.S. residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys.” (document, page 63)

Documents