Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

ReconMR/Siena Research Institute: 5 Oct – 8 Oct 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by ReconMR/Siena Research Institute.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 4 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 617 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 5 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size617 “This ReconMR Texas Poll was conducted October 5 - 8, 2026, among 617 Texas Likely Voters. Of the 617 respondents, 617 were contacted” (document, page 3)
Field start date2026-10-05 “This ReconMR Texas Poll was conducted October 5 - 8, 2026, among 617 Texas Likely Voters. Of the 617 respondents, 617 were contacted” (document, page 3)
Field end date2026-10-08 “This ReconMR Texas Poll was conducted October 5 - 8, 2026, among 617 Texas Likely Voters. Of the 617 respondents, 617 were contacted” (document, page 3)
How people were reachedmixed “through a dual-frame (landline and cell phone) mode (217 completed via text-to-web). Telephone calls were conducted in English and Spanish” (document, page 3)
Who was surveyedlv “42% in San Antonio/South. They’re tied at 48% among likely voters in Dallas-Fort Worth,” Hendren said.” (document, page 2)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error4.4 “region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points,” (document, page 3)
Weightingparty, age, region, race/ethnicity, education, gender “Data from collection modes were weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for Texas's population using data from L2's state voter file, on party, age, region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness.” (document, page 3)
Party mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Age mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingIf the election for Senator of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were the Republican, Ken Paxton, the Democrat, James Talarico, or someone else? “If the election for Senator of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were the Republican, Ken Paxton, the Democrat, James Talarico, or someone else? (Names of candidates were rotated.)” (document, page 4)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “The Democrat, James Talarico 48% 92% 7% 60%” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “The landline telephone sample and the cell phone sample were obtained from the L2 Voter Database.” (document, page 3)

Documents