Texas poll check

Governor, general election

YouGov Blue: 21 Oct – 26 Oct 2026

Governor, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by YouGov Blue.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Flagdid not disclose crosstabs
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 6 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,000 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 2 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1000 “HOUSTON, Texas — A new 254 Labs poll of Texas statewide races, conducted October 21–26 among 1,000 registered voters, weighted to likely voter targets provided by 254 Labs that include early voting turnout, finds Democrats ahead in” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-10-21 “Methodology: YouGov Blue interviewed 1,000 Texas registered voters online and via text-to-web from October 21–26, 2026 on behalf of 254 Labs. The sample fielded on quotas according to gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, state” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-10-26 “Methodology: YouGov Blue interviewed 1,000 Texas registered voters online and via text-to-web from October 21–26, 2026 on behalf of 254 Labs. The sample fielded on quotas according to gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, state” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedtext-to-web “Methodology: YouGov Blue interviewed 1,000 Texas registered voters online and via text-to-web from October 21–26,” (document, page 1)
Who was surveyedNot disclosed
Sponsor254 Labs “YouGov Blue interviewed 1,000 Texas registered voters online and via text-to-web from October 21–26, 2026 on behalf of 254 Labs.” (document, page 1)
Margin of error4.6 “The margin of error (a 95% confidence interval) is approximately 4.6%.” (document, page 1)
WeightingLikely voter targets, which include: gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, state geographic region, 2020 Presidential vote, 2022 general election turnout, approximate 2024 Presidential vote; plus a benchmark for early vote turnout “The sample was weighted to likely voter targets provided by 254 Labs, which include the above based on a likely voter frame, as well as a benchmark for early vote turnout as of fielding completion date.” (document, page 1)
Party mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Age mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderNot disclosed
CrosstabsNot disclosed
Where respondents came fromNot disclosed

Documents