Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University): 22 Apr – 6 May 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University).

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Flagdid not disclose the how people were reached
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 15 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,223 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 12 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1223 “a subset of 1,223 (margin of error of +/- 2.80%) of the YouGov respondents” (document, page 2)
Field start date2026-04-22 “conducted in English and Spanish between April 22 and May 6, 2026. The respondents were” (document, page 2)
Field end date2026-05-06 “conducted in English and Spanish between April 22 and May 6, 2026. The respondents were” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedNot disclosed
Who was surveyedlv “In the November 2026 Texas gubernatorial election, 49% of likely voters intend to vote for” (document, page 3)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error2.80 “this report focuses on a subset of 1,223 (margin of error of +/- 2.80%) of the YouGov respondents” (document, page 2)
Weightinggender, age, race/ethnicity, education (the document says the respondents were 'matched to a sampling frame' on these; it does not use the word 'weighted') “The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race/ethnicity and education” (document, page 2)
Party mix of the sampleRepublican 49%, Democrat 39%, Independent 11%, unsure 1% “Republicans account for 49% of this population, Democrats for 39% and Independents for 11%, with 1% unsure of their partisan identification.” (document, page 3)
Age mix of the sampleSilent Generation/Baby Boomer 33%, Gen-X 26%, Millennial 26%, Gen-Z 15% (generational cohorts, not exact age groups) “Regarding generations, 33% of this population belongs to the combined Silent Generation (born between 1928-1945) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964) cohort, 26% to Generation X (Gen-X) (1965-1980), 26% to the Millennial (1981-1996) generation, and 15% to Generation Z (Gen-Z) (1997-2012).” (document, page 3)
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingif the November Texas U.S. Senate election was held today, and these were the candidates, for whom would you vote? “Likely voters were asked, if the November Texas U.S. Senate election was held today, and these were the candidates, for whom would you vote?” (document, page 4)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Table 1. Vote Intention in Two Hypothetical Nov. 2026 U.S. Senate Elections, Among Key Sub-Groups (%)” (document, page 6)
Where respondents came frompanel-vendor “subset of 1,223 (margin of error of +/- 2.80%) of the YouGov respondents from the broader survey population” (document, page 2)

Documents