Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Republican primary

Quantus Insights: 11 May – 13 May 2025

U.S. Senate, Republican primary · registered voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Quantus Insights.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed registered voters 294 days before the election
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 3 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 600 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 1 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size600 “Sample: 600 Texas registered voters | Fielded May 11–13, 2025 | Published May 14, 2025” (document, page 2)
Field start date2025-05-11 “Sample: 600 Texas registered voters | Fielded May 11–13, 2025 | Published May 14, 2025” (document, page 2)
Field end date2025-05-13 “Sample: 600 Texas registered voters | Fielded May 11–13, 2025 | Published May 14, 2025” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedmixed “Mode: Mixed-mode approach using opt-in online panels and SMS outreach to improve demographic and geographic reach” (document, page 2)
Who was surveyedrv “Sample: 600 Texas registered voters | Fielded May 11–13, 2025 | Published May 14, 2025” (document, page 2)
SponsorTrending Politics News “Sponsor: Trending Politics News” (document, page 2)
Margin of error4.4 “Margin of Error: ±4.4% at 95% confidence” (document, page 2)
Weightingage, gender, race/ethnicity, education, party registration (raking); demographics, past vote history, partisan registration (propensity modeling); race, education, region interactions (MCW) “Calibrated sample to match population benchmarks from the U.S. Census and L2 voter file on age, gender, race/et hnicity, education, and party registration” (document, page 2)
Party mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Age mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingIn the Republican primary for Senator, which candidate do you plan to vote for? “Q3. In the Republican primary for Senator, which candidate do you plan to vote for?” (document, page 6)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Paxton vs. Cornyn — Texas GOP Primary Voter Preference by Demographic (600 Sample)” (document, page 7)
Where respondents came frompanel-vendor “Mode: Mixed-mode approach using opt-in online panels and SMS outreach to improve demographic and geographic reach” (document, page 2)

Documents