Texas poll check

Governor, general election

Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University): 27 Jul – 30 Jul 2026

Governor, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University).

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 4 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,200 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 5 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1200 “conducted a representative survey of 1,200 Texans who are likely to cast a ballot in the November 2026 general election in Texas” (document, page 2)
Field start date2026-07-27 “was fielded between July 27 and July 30, 2026 by contacting registered voters via SMS text” (document, page 2)
Field end date2026-07-30 “was fielded between July 27 and July 30, 2026 by contacting registered voters via SMS text” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedmixed “was fielded between July 27 and July 30, 2026 by contacting registered voters via SMS text” (document, page 2)
Who was surveyedlv “Only 50% and 23% of likely voters know enough about Middleton and Johnson, respectively, to” (document, page 3)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error2.83 “2026 general election in Texas (margin of error of +/- 2.83%). The survey (in English and Spanish)” (document, page 2)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sample50% Republican, 41% Democratic, 7% Independent, 1% another party, 1% unsure “The distribution of partisan identifiers among these likely voters is 50% Republican, 41% Democratic and 7% Independent, with 1% identifying with another party and 1% unsure of their partisanship.” (document, page 3)
Age mix of the sample18-34: 18%; 35-54: 33%; 55+: 49% “Almost one-fifth (18%) of the population is between the ages of 18 and 34, 33% is between the ages of 35 and 54, and 49% is age 55 and older.” (document, page 3)
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderFavorability questions about statewide candidates were asked before the vote intention questions. “before the respective vote intention questions were asked, these Texas likely voters were queried” (document, page 25)
Crosstabsyes “Table 2: Vote Intention in the Nov. 2026 Texas Gubernatorial Election, Among Key Sub-Groups (%)” (document, page 8)
Where respondents came fromNot disclosed

Documents