Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

YouGov: 5 Jun – 12 Jun 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · registered voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by YouGov.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed registered voters 144 days before the election
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 8 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,200 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 11 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1200 “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-06-05 “Field Dates: June 5-12, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-06-12 “Field Dates: June 5-12, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedonline-panel “population and the opt-in panel.” (document, page 59)
Who was surveyedrv “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot checked
Margin of error2.83 “Margin of error: +/- 2.83% (3.47% adjusted for weighting) unless otherwise noted1” (document, page 1)
Weightinggender, age, race/ethnicity, education, home ownership, 2024 presidential vote “The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership.” (document, page 58)
Party mix of the samplePID3: Democrats 40, Independents 9, Republicans 50 (percent) “Democrats 40” (document, page 48)
Age mix of the sample18-29: 16, 30-44: 26, 45-64: 33, 65+: 25 (percent) “18-29 16” (document, page 50)
Region mix of the sampleMETRO: Houston area 21, Dallas-Fort Worth area 30, San Antonio area 10, Austin area 9, another part of Texas 31 (percent). This is a metro-area split, not a defined region split. “No, I live in another part of Texas 31” (document, page 50)
Ballot question wordingIf the 2026 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican Ken Paxton”, “the Democrat James Talarico”, “the Libertarian Ted Brown”] the Republican Ken Paxton, the Democrat James Talarico, and the Libertarian Ted Brown, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-3] “the Republican Ken Paxton, the Democrat James Talarico, and the Libertarian Ted Brown, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?” (document, page 33)
Question orderThe document marks Q9A and Q9B for randomized order. Q9A asks about Ted Cruz and Q9B asks about John Cornyn. These are job-approval questions, not the vote-choice ballot. “[RANDOMIZE Q9A-Q9B]” (document, page 12)
Crosstabsyes “June 2026 Texas Statewide Survey Crosstabs” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came frompanel-vendor “Second, for each member of the target sample, we select one or more matching members from our pool of opt-in respondents.” (document, page 59)

Documents