U.S. Senate, Democratic primary
National Republican Senatorial Committee: 4 Jul – 7 Jul 2025
U.S. Senate, Democratic primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Rules
| Rule | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. | Could not check | no measured benchmark for this state yet |
| The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. | Withheld | decided by a wording judge that is not built or measured |
| Did not disclose crosstabs. | Could not check | we read only a page about this poll, not the pollster's own release, so we cannot say what the pollster disclosed |
| Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. | Could not check | we read only a page about this poll, not the pollster's own release, so we cannot say what the pollster disclosed |
| Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. | Could not check | we read only a page about this poll, not the pollster's own release, so we cannot say what the pollster disclosed |
| Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67 |
| Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. | Clear | surveyed likely voters |
| Fielded in a single day. | Could not check | field dates not on the page we read (see the basic-method rule) |
| Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). | Clear | sample of 566 meets the threshold of 400 |
| Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60 |
| First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. | Could not check | field end or first listing date not known |
What the poll's documents state
| Fact | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Sample size | 566 | “surveyed 566 likely Democratic primary voters and was conducted July 4-7” (document, page 1) |
| Field start date | Not on the page we read | |
| Field end date | Not on the page we read | |
| How people were reached | Not on the page we read | |
| Who was surveyed | lv | “surveyed 566 likely Democratic primary voters and was conducted July 4-7” (document, page 1) |
| Sponsor | National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) | “according to a survey conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is supporting Cornyn's campaign against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton” (document, page 1) |
| Margin of error | 3.03 | “Recent polling shows Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, at the forefront of likely Democratic voters' preferences in the race for a U.S. Senate seat that will be up for grabs in the 2026 midterms. Why It Matters The 2026 Texas Senate race is viewed as pivotal by both parties, with implications for control of the upper chamber of Congress. Texas has remained a Republican stronghold in recent election cycles despite high-profile Democratic bids from former U.S. Representatives Beto O'Rourke and Colin Allred. Flipping the seat currently held by Republican Senator John Cornyn would represent a major political shift in the state and nation. Crockett has not yet declared a run for Senate but has been viewed by many as a rising star in the Democratic Party on the national stage. Her rise has also drawn significant criticism and backlash from Republicans. What To Know Crockett led with 35 percent support among surveyed Democratic voters, ahead of Allred at 20 percent, with O'Rourke and Texas Representative Joaquin Castro both at 13 percent, according to a survey conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is supporting Cornyn's campaign against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. O'Rourke and Castro have not yet declared their candidacies, but both remain possible entrants as the December filing deadline approaches. Eighteen percent of respondents remained undecided about their preferred nominee to challenge the Republican candidate. Newsweek reached out to Crockett's office for comment. The poll, initially obtained by the Daily Caller, surveyed 566 likely Democratic primary voters and was conducted July 4-7. Crockett's margin against her Democratic counterparts far exceeds the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.03 percent. Crockett was also the top choice for "shared values" among likely Democratic voters in a University of Texas at Tyler poll conducted May 28-June 7, garnering 30 percent support. However, when respondents were asked who had the best chance of defeating a Republican, Allred edged into the lead at 34 percent versus Crockett's 27 percent. Allred, who lost to Senator Ted Cruz by 9 percentage points in November, officially launched his campaign July 1. He has positioned himself as a potential nominee with broader general election appeal, especially if Paxton prevails in a contentious Republican primary to unseat Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth term. An Allred campaign spokesperson cited the polls to Newsweek on Thursday, in addition to two other polls. One, from Texas Public Opinion Research, showed Allred as the most popular politician statewide (+7), and the only politician with a positive approval rating. A Texas Southern University poll released on May 28 showed the same approval numbers for Allred, a net favorable rating of plus-7 points. What People Are Saying Ken Wink, UT Tyler professor and interim Center for Opinion Research director, told Newsweek in June: "My assessment is Texas is still a red state. That doesn't mean that it's impossible for Democrats to win, but they don't have a very good track record. It's been decades since they won any statewide race, and I think next year is shaping up again to be a pretty good one for Republicans." Representative Jasmine Crockett, in a June 3 letter announcing her run for ranking member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform: "Every hearing, every investigation, every public moment must serve the dual purpose of accountability and must demonstrate why a House Democratic majority is essential for America's future." What Happens Next The Texas Democratic Senate primary is set for March 3, 2026. Candidates can enter the race before the filing deadline in early December. With 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided and party leadership weighing the potential for a competitive general election matchup, the coming months may significantly reshape the field.” (document, page 1) |
| Weighting | Not on the page we read | |
| Party mix of the sample | Not on the page we read | |
| Age mix of the sample | Not on the page we read | |
| Region mix of the sample | Not on the page we read | |
| Ballot question wording | Not on the page we read | |
| Question order | Not on the page we read | |
| Crosstabs | Not on the page we read | |
| Where respondents came from | Not on the page we read |
Documents
- Article or page: https://www.newsweek.com/jasmine-crockett-poll-texas-senate-cornyn-paxton-2097262 (kept a copy)