Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Republican primary

University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs: 19 Sep – 1 Oct 2025

U.S. Senate, Republican primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Flagdid not disclose the how people were reached
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 13 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 576 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 8 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size576 “total of 576 registered voters (with a margin of error of +/- 4.08%) were determined to be likely to vote” (document, page 6)
Field start date2025-09-19 “survey in the series was fielded between September 19 and October 1, 2025 and focused on opinions” (document, page 2)
Field end date2025-10-01 “survey in the series was fielded between September 19 and October 1, 2025 and focused on opinions” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedNot disclosed
Who was surveyedrv “45% of Texas registered voters have a favorable opinion of President Donald Trump, while 52% have an” (document, page 4)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error4.08 “total of 576 registered voters (with a margin of error of +/- 4.08%) were determined to be likely to vote” (document, page 6)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sampleRepublicans 44%, Democrats 41%, Independents 13%, unsure 2% (registered voter population) “Republicans account for 44% of this population, Democrats for 41% and Independents for 13%” (document, page 3)
Age mix of the sampleSilent Generation/Baby Boomer 32%, Gen-X 26%, Millennial 26%, Gen-Z 16% (generation cohorts, registered voter population) “Silent Generation (born between 1928-1945) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964) cohort, 26% to Generation X (Gen-X) (1965-1980)” (document, page 3)
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Table 1 provides the vote intention of likely Republican primary voters in the GOP U.S. Senate primary, broken down by gender, ethnicity/race” (document, page 8)
Where respondents came fromNot disclosed

Documents