Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

ReconMR/Siena Research Institute: 8 Sep – 11 Sep 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by ReconMR/Siena Research Institute.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 4 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 451 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 6 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size451 “identification, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. For the sample that answered the entire survey (n=451), it has an overall margin of error of +/-” (document, page 7)
Field start date2026-09-08 “September 8 - 11, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-09-11 “September 8 - 11, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedmixed “This ReconMR Texas Poll was conducted September 8 - 11, 2026, among 614 Likely Texas Voters. Of the 614 respondents, 365 were contacted through a dual-frame (landline and cell phone) mode and 249” (document, page 7)
Who was surveyedrv “1. Data Collection Strategy A quantitative research study among registered voters in Texas. Topics included likelihood of voting in the upcoming elections, as well as issues of importance to voters.” (document, page 8)
SponsorReconMR “2A. Research Sponsor ReconMR” (document, page 8)
Margin of error11 “identification, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. For the sample that answered the entire survey (n=451), it has an overall margin of error of +/- Austin 11%” (document, page 7)
Weightingage, region, race/ethnicity, education, party identification, gender, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood “the sample was weighted to match estimates from the state voter file, on age, region,race/ethnicity, education, party identification, gender, and a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood.” (document, page 8)
Party mix of the sampleDEM 26%, REP 40%, IND/OTHER 31% (Likely Texas Voters) “DEM 26%” (document, page 7)
Age mix of the sample18-34 8%, 35-49 22%, 50-64 30%, 65+ 39% “18-34 8%” (document, page 7)
Region mix of the sampleAustin 11%, DFW 24%, Houston 19%, Rural 32%, San Antonio/South 14% “Austin 11%” (document, page 7)
Ballot question wordingIf the election for Senator of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: (Names of candidates were rotated) “Q3. If the election for Senator of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: (Names of candidates were rotated)” (document, page 1)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “ReconMR Texas Poll September Crosstabs Page 1 of 8” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “The telephone sample was acquired from the L2 database of registered voters.” (document, page 8)

Documents