Texas poll check

Governor, general election

ReconMR/Siena Research Institute: 27 Jul – 30 Jul 2026

Governor, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by ReconMR/Siena Research Institute.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Flagdid not disclose crosstabs
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 4 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 453 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 8 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size453 “representativeness. For the sample that answered the entire survey (n=453), it has an overall margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage” (document, page 5)
Field start date2026-07-27 “This Texas Poll / Texas A&M Bush School Poll was conducted July 27 - 30, 2026, among 619 Likely Texas Voters. Of the 619” (document, page 5)
Field end date2026-07-30 “This Texas Poll / Texas A&M Bush School Poll was conducted July 27 - 30, 2026, among 619 Likely Texas Voters. Of the 619” (document, page 5)
How people were reachedmixed “respondents, 455 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (164 completed via text to web).” (document, page 5)
Who was surveyedlv “are still forming opinions about Gina Hinojosa. Nearly one in three likely voters – 31 percent - said they did not” (document, page 2)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error5.5 “representativeness. For the sample that answered the entire survey (n=453), it has an overall margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage” (document, page 5)
Weightingage, region, race/ethnicity, education, party identification, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, gender “weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for Texas’s population using data from the state voter file, on age, region, race/ethnicity, education, party identification, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender” (document, page 5)
Party mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Age mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingIf the election for Governor of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were the Republican, Greg Abbott, the Democrat, Gina Hinojosa, or someone else? (Names of candidates were rotated.) “If the election for Governor of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were the Republican, Greg Abbott, the Democrat, Gina Hinojosa, or someone else? (Names of candidates were rotated.)” (document, page 6)
Question orderNot disclosed
CrosstabsNot disclosed
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “The landline telephone sample and the cell phone sample were obtained from L-2 database of registered voters.” (document, page 5)

Documents