U.S. Senate, Republican primary
Peak Insights: 20 Nov – 25 Nov 2025
U.S. Senate, Republican primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Peak Insights.
Rules
| Rule | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. | Could not check | no measured benchmark for this state yet |
| The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. | Withheld | decided by a wording judge that is not built or measured |
| Did not disclose crosstabs. | Could not check | we could not read the crosstabs in this poll's documents |
| Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. | Clear | sample size, field dates and mode disclosed |
| Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. | Flag | did not disclose how the sample was weighted |
| Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67 |
| Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. | Clear | surveyed likely voters |
| Fielded in a single day. | Clear | fielded over 6 days |
| Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). | Clear | sample of 600 meets the threshold of 400 |
| Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60 |
| First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. | Clear | first listed 6 days after fieldwork ended |
What the poll's documents state
| Fact | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Sample size | 600 | “A recent statewide survey of likely 2026 Texas Republican Primary voters (N=600 live calls), conducted for Texans” (document, page 1) |
| Field start date | 2025-11-20 | “The survey, conducted by Peak Insights for Texans for a Conservative Majority, was fielded November 20-25, 2025. N=600 (MoE +/-4%) live interviews among a representative sample of 2026 GOP primary election voters in” (document, page 2) |
| Field end date | 2025-11-25 | “The survey, conducted by Peak Insights for Texans for a Conservative Majority, was fielded November 20-25, 2025. N=600 (MoE +/-4%) live interviews among a representative sample of 2026 GOP primary election voters in” (document, page 2) |
| How people were reached | live-phone | “2025. N=600 (MoE +/-4%) live interviews among a representative sample of 2026 GOP primary election voters in” (document, page 2) |
| Who was surveyed | lv | “A recent statewide survey of likely 2026 Texas Republican Primary voters” (document, page 1) |
| Sponsor | Texans for a Conservative Majority (TCM) | “conducted for Texans for a Conservative Majority (TCM)” (document, page 1) |
| Margin of error | 4 | “N=600 (MoE +/-4%) live interviews among a representative sample of 2026 GOP primary election voters in Texas” (document, page 2) |
| Weighting | Not disclosed | |
| Party mix of the sample | Not disclosed | |
| Age mix of the sample | Not disclosed | |
| Region mix of the sample | Not disclosed | |
| Ballot question wording | Not disclosed | |
| Question order | Not disclosed | |
| Crosstabs | Not checked | |
| Where respondents came from | Not disclosed |
Documents
- Article or page: https://dailycaller.com/2025/12/01/john-cornyn-ken-paxton-wesley-hunt-texas-senate-primary-poll/ (kept a copy)
- Topline: https://cdn01.dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Peak-Insights-IP-Memo-Nov-202530.pdf (kept a copy)