Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Democratic primary

Slingshot Strategies: 27 Aug – 29 Aug 2025

U.S. Senate, Democratic primary · registered voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Slingshot Strategies.

Sources disagree

The poll listings disagree on the sample size: PollResults lists 278; VoteHub lists 843. We show the first and have not ruled.

Rules

Rule	Result	Why
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points.	Could not check	no measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents.	Withheld	decided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs.	Flag	did not disclose crosstabs
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached.	Flag	did not disclose the how people were reached
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted.	Flag	did not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points.	Withheld	extraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election.	Clear	surveyed registered voters 186 days before the election
Fielded in a single day.	Clear	fielded over 3 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district).	Clear	sample of 843 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee.	Withheld	extraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended.	Clear	first listed 14 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

Fact	Status	Evidence
Sample size	843	“843 Registered Voters, August 27-August 29, 2025” (document, page 1)
Field start date	2025-08-27	“843 Registered Voters, August 27-August 29, 2025” (document, page 1)
Field end date	2025-08-29	“843 Registered Voters, August 27-August 29, 2025” (document, page 1)
How people were reached	Not disclosed
Who was surveyed	rv	“843 Registered Voters, August 27-August 29, 2025” (document, page 1)
Sponsor	Not disclosed
Margin of error	4.6	“MOE ±4.6, Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding” (document, page 1)
Weighting	Not disclosed
Party mix of the sample	Democrat 32%; Republican 38%; Independent 26%; Something else 4%	“Democrat 32%” (document, page 2)
Age mix of the sample	18-24 4%; 25-29 7%; 30-34 10%; 35-39 10%; 40-44 7%; 45-49 6%; 50-54 11%; 55-59 7%; 60-64 9%; 65-69 13%; 70-74 9%; 74+ 7%	“18-24 4%” (document, page 3)
Region mix of the sample	Not disclosed
Ballot question wording	[DEMOCRATS ONLY] If the 2026 Democratic primary election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?	“13) [DEMOCRATS ONLY] If the 2026 Democratic primary election for U.S. Senate” (document, page 10)
Question order	Not disclosed
Crosstabs	Not disclosed
Where respondents came from	Not disclosed

Documents

Topline: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000199-3cc6-dddb-a7d9-3fcfeeca0000&nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=4f4d3aeb-621a-47b9-a66d-d9944fed5257 (kept a copy)