Trafalgar Group: 6 Oct – 8 Oct 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Trafalgar Group.

Rules

Rule	Result	Why
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points.	Could not check	no measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents.	Withheld	decided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs.	Clear	crosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached.	Flag	did not disclose the how people were reached
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted.	Flag	did not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points.	Withheld	extraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election.	Clear	surveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day.	Clear	fielded over 3 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district).	Clear	sample of 1,086 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee.	Withheld	extraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended.	Clear	first listed 2 days after fieldwork ended

Fact	Status	Evidence
Sample size	1086	“• 1086 Respondents” (document, page 2)
Field start date	2026-10-06	“• Conducted 10/06/26 - 10/08/26” (document, page 2)
Field end date	2026-10-08	“• Conducted 10/06/26 - 10/08/26” (document, page 2)
How people were reached	Not disclosed
Who was surveyed	lv	“Likely General Election Voters” (document, page 2)
Sponsor	Not disclosed
Margin of error	2.9	“• Margin of Error: 2.9%” (document, page 2)
Weighting	Not disclosed
Party mix of the sample	Not disclosed
Age mix of the sample	Not disclosed
Region mix of the sample	Not disclosed
Ballot question wording	If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, for whom would you most likely vote?	“If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, for whom would you most likely vote?” (document, page 3)
Question order	Not disclosed
Crosstabs	yes	“AgeGender Crosstabs” (document, page 8)
Where respondents came from	Not disclosed