Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Pollfinity: 15 Oct – 18 Oct 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by votehub. All polls by Pollfinity.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 4 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Flagsample of 278 is below the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 4 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size278 “Exclusive Pollfinity Research Survey — Texas Registered Voters — October 15–18, 2026 | n=278 Senate-ballot respondents,” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-10-15 “Exclusive Pollfinity Research Survey — Texas Registered Voters — October 15–18, 2026 | n=278 Senate-ballot respondents,” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-10-18 “Exclusive Pollfinity Research Survey — Texas Registered Voters — October 15–18, 2026 | n=278 Senate-ballot respondents,” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedlive-phone “of active registered Texas voters with a cell phone on record, with no turnout or response-likelihood filter applied. The 40,000-record sample was a” (document, page 3)
Who was surveyedrv “most recent midterm electorate), rather than of all registered voters; recalled vote was weighted to the certified 2024 presidential and 2022” (document, page 3)
SponsorPollfinity Research LLC (self-funded; owned by Lars Mapstead). The document also says the survey was not commissioned by any candidate, party, or outside organization. “Pollfinity Research LLC is owned and self-funded by Lars Mapstead” (document, page 3)
Margin of error6.5 “McCormick at 1% and 6% undecided. All three gaps are inside the survey's full-sample margin of error of ±6.5 points.” (document, page 1)
Weightingage, gender, ethnic group, region (demographic targets from 2022 general-election voters on the voter file); recalled vote (weighted to certified 2024 presidential and 2022 gubernatorial results) “the demographic weighting targets are the age, gender, ethnic group and region profile of Texas's 2022 general-election voters on the voter file” (document, page 3)
Party mix of the sampleUnweighted counts by voter-file modeled party (not self-reported party ID), out of 278: Democratic 137, Republican 124, Non-Partisan 17. “Unweighted n 278 137 124 17 65 80 27 22 13 71” (document, page 2)
Age mix of the sample18-24 3%, 25-34 6%, 35-44 19%, 45-54 14%, 55-64 20%, 65-74 24%, 75 or older 11%, Prefer not to say 2% (base unweighted n = 245) “D1. What is your age?” (document, page 4)
Region mix of the sampleHouston 65; Dallas-Fort Worth 80; Austin 27; San Antonio 22; Border 13; Rest of Texas 71 (total 278). These are respondent counts (n=) for the U.S. Senate question. “Houston (n=65)” (document, page 2)
Ballot question wordingIf the 2026 election for United States Senator from Texas were held today, and the candidates were Ken Paxton (Republican), James Talarico (Democrat), and Ted Brown (Libertarian), who would you vote for? “If the 2026 election for United States Senator from Texas were held today, and the candidates were Ken Paxton (Republican), James Talarico (Democrat), and Ted Brown (Libertarian), who would you vote for?” (document, page 1)
Question orderThe ballot-access question was asked after all ballot tests. “the ballot-access question was asked after all ballot tests” (document, page 3)
Crosstabsyes “Survey Results & Crosstabulations” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “Respondents were drawn from a statewide voter file of active registered Texas voters” (document, page 3)

Documents