U.S. Senate, Democratic primary
Emerson College: 26 Feb – 28 Feb 2026
U.S. Senate, Democratic primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Emerson College.
Sources disagree
- Another listing may describe this same poll under a different pollster name or dates. We have not ruled on it yet.
Rules
| Rule | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. | Could not check | we could not read the age mix of the sample in this poll's documents |
| The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. | Withheld | decided by a wording judge that is not built or measured |
| Did not disclose crosstabs. | Could not check | we could not read the crosstabs in this poll's documents |
| Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. | Clear | sample size, field dates and mode stated on a page about this poll |
| Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. | Could not check | we could not read the weighting in this poll's documents |
| Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67 |
| Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. | Clear | surveyed likely voters |
| Fielded in a single day. | Clear | fielded over 2 days |
| Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). | Clear | sample of 850 meets the threshold of 400 |
| Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. | Withheld | extraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60 |
| First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. | Clear | first listed 3 days after fieldwork ended |
What the poll's documents state
| Fact | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Sample size | 850 | “The sample of likely Democratic Primary voters/those who have already voted includes a sample size of n=850 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3 percent. The sample of likely Republican primary voters/those who have already voted includes a sample size of n=547 with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.” (document, page 1) |
| Field start date | 2026-02-26 | “The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted February 26-27, 2026.” (document, page 1) |
| Field end date | 2026-02-27 | “The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted February 26-27, 2026.” (document, page 1) |
| How people were reached | mixed | “Data was collected by contacting a list of voters’ cellphones via MMS text-to-web, landlines via Interactive Voice Response, and panel interviews for Democratic Primary voters provided by PureSpectrum and matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English and Spanish.” (document, page 1) |
| Who was surveyed | lv | “The sample of likely Democratic Primary voters/those who have already voted includes a sample size of n=850” (document, page 1) |
| Sponsor | Could not read | |
| Margin of error | 4.1 | “The sample of likely Democratic Primary voters/those who have already voted includes a sample size of n=850 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3 percent. The sample of likely Republican primary voters/those who have already voted includes a sample size of n=547 with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.” (document, page 1) |
| Weighting | Could not read | |
| Party mix of the sample | Could not read | |
| Age mix of the sample | Could not read | |
| Region mix of the sample | Could not read | |
| Ballot question wording | Could not read | |
| Question order | Could not read | |
| Crosstabs | Could not read | |
| Where respondents came from | mixed | “Data was collected by contacting a list of voters’ cellphones via MMS text-to-web, landlines via Interactive Voice Response, and panel interviews for Democratic Primary voters provided by PureSpectrum and matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code.” (document, page 1) |
Documents
- Article or page: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-primary-poll-talarico-paxton-with-narrow-edges-in-senate-primaries/ (kept a copy)
- Crosstabs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g2uAKcE35tgAzWSlsp9m0W0kPmnqDT-B/export?format=xlsx (kept a copy)