Texas poll check

Governor, general election

Marist University: 8 Oct – 11 Oct 2026

Governor, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Marist University.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 4 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,105 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 3 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1105 “unweighted sample size < 50. N=1105 for this question.” (document, page 8)
Field start date2026-10-08 “Marist Poll Texas Likely Voters. Interviews conducted October 8-11, 2026. Totals may not” (document, page 3)
Field end date2026-10-11 “Marist Poll Texas Likely Voters. Interviews conducted October 8-11, 2026. Totals may not” (document, page 3)
How people were reachedmixed “By phone using live interviewers (265), by text (698), or online (233). All potential respondents were screened for age and” (document, page 1)
Who was surveyedlv “Texas Likely Voters” (document, page 2)
SponsorMarist University (funder). The Marist Poll is the conducting program. “The Marist Poll is an educational program in public opinion research and funded by Marist University.” (document, page 1)
Margin of error4.9 “Results for likely voters are statistically significant within ±4.9 percentage points.” (document, page 1)
Weightingage, gender, income, race/ethnicity, education (matched to CPS for registered voters), region (adjusted for turnout in similar elections), likely voter weight “To ensure representativeness, data was balanced to match current estimates for registered voters by age, gender, income, and race/ethnicity using L2 voter parameters.” (document, page 1)
Party mix of the sample28% Democrat, 42% Republican, 26% independent (among likely voters) “The partisan breakdown for this survey among likely voters is 28% Democrat, 42% Republican, and 26% independent.” (document, page 1)
Age mix of the sample18 to 29: 13%; 30 to 44: 26%; 45 to 64: 36%; 65 or older: 25% “65 or older 25%” (document, page 3)
Region mix of the sampleEast 15%; Dallas/Ft. Worth Area 21%; Houston Area 20%; South Central 17%; West 13%; Southwest 13% “Dallas/Ft. Worth Area 21%” (document, page 3)
Ballot question wordingIn November's election for Governor, are you supporting: Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat; Greg Abbott, the Republican; Another party's candidate; Undecided; Vol: No response (question GVVT26R, Likely Voters) “In November's election for Governor, are you supporting:” (document, page 10)
Question orderNot checked
Crosstabsyes “TRUDP105B. Weighted Crosstab” (document, page 4)
Where respondents came frommixed “The telephone sample was randomly selected from L2’s registered voter database of Texas.” (document, page 1)

Documents