Texas poll check

Governor, general election

University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs: 10 Oct – 14 Oct 2026

Governor, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 5 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 2,000 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 5 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size2000 “the overall sample population of 2,000 Texas likely voters was adjusted via multidimensional calibration weighting” (document, page 2)
Field start date2026-10-10 “the survey in English or Spanish. The survey was fielded between October 10 and October 14, 2026.” (document, page 2)
Field end date2026-10-14 “the survey in English or Spanish. The survey was fielded between October 10 and October 14, 2026.” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedmixed “contacted via SMS text message and directed to an online survey platform with the option to answer” (document, page 2)
Who was surveyedlv “This report analyzes two separate sample populations, one of 750 rural Texas likely voters (margin of” (document, page 2)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error4.18 “error of +/- 3.58%) and one of 500 Latino Texas likely voters (margin of error of +/- 4.18%). These two” (document, page 2)
Weightingdemographic, historical electoral, geographic benchmarks “These two overall sample populations were adjusted via multidimensional calibration weighting using demographic, historical electoral, and geographic benchmarks.” (document, page 2)
Party mix of the sampleRural sample (750): 60% Republican, 21% Independent, 15% Democratic, 4% other or unsure. Latino sample (500): 38% Democratic, 33% Republican, 25% Independent, 4% other or unsure. “The distribution of partisan identifiers among these likely voters is 60% Republican, 21% Independent and 15% Democratic, with 4% identifying with another party or group or unsure of their partisanship.” (document, page 3)
Age mix of the sampleRural sample (750): 19% aged 18-34, 25% aged 35-54, 56% aged 55+. Latino sample (500): 24% aged 18-34, 34% aged 35-54, 42% aged 55+. “Almost one-fifth (19%) of the population is between the ages of 18 and 34, 25% is between the ages of 35 and 54, and 56% is age 55 and older.” (document, page 3)
Region mix of the sampleLatino sample (500): 41% urban, 45% suburban, 14% rural (per L2 variable). Rural sample (750): 62% live in a county where none of their fellow likely voters live in an urban or suburban area, 38% do not. “41% of these Latino likely voters are classified as living in an urban area of the state, 45% in a suburban area, and 14% in a rural area.” (document, page 3)
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Table 2: Rural Vote Intention in the November 2026 Texas Gubernatorial Election, Among Key Sub-Groups (%)” (document, page 8)
Where respondents came fromNot disclosed

Documents