Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Republican primary

YouGov: 26 Feb – 2 Mar 2026

U.S. Senate, Republican primary · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by YouGov.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 5 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,688 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 0 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1688 “1,688 Likely Texas Republican Primary Voters” (document, page 12)
Field start date2026-02-26 “Conducted February 26 - March 2, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-03-02 “Conducted February 26 - March 2, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedtext-to-web “the Texas voter list and contacted by SMS text message. All” (document, page 24)
Who was surveyedlv “February 26 - March 2, 2026 - 1,688 Likely Texas Republican Primary Voters” (document, page 15)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error2.7 “Margin of Error ±2.7%” (document, page 1)
Weightinggender, age, past election turnout, imputed education, imputed race, 2024 vote choice “The sample was weighted to gender, age, past election turnout, and imputed education, race, and 2024 vote choice.” (document, page 24)
Party mix of the sampleUnweighted counts only, no percentages: Dem 16, Rep 1,242, Ind 343 (of 1,688) “(16) (1,242) (343)” (document, page 19)
Age mix of the sample18-29: 7%; 30-44: 16%; 45-64: 40%; 65+: 37% “10. What is your age?” (document, page 14)
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingWho [did/will] you vote for in the Republican primary for U.S. Senator? “9. Who [did/will] you vote for in the Republican primary for U.S. Senator?” (document, page 13)
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Unweighted N” (document, page 15)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “5,316 Texas registered voters were randomly selected from the Texas voter list and contacted by SMS text message.” (document, page 24)

Documents