Texas poll check

Governor, general election

YouGov: 5 Jun – 12 Jun 2026

Governor, general election · registered voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by YouGov.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Clearweighting disclosed
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed registered voters 144 days before the election
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 8 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,200 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 11 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1200 “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
Field start date2026-06-05 “Field Dates: June 5-12, 2026” (document, page 1)
Field end date2026-06-12 “Field Dates: June 5-12, 2026” (document, page 1)
How people were reachedonline-panel “population and the opt-in panel.” (document, page 59)
Who was surveyedrv “N=1200 Registered Voters” (document, page 1)
SponsorNot checked
Margin of error2.83 “Margin of error: +/- 2.83% (3.47% adjusted for weighting) unless otherwise noted1” (document, page 1)
Weighting2024 presidential vote choice, gender, age, race, education, race/ethnicity, years of education, home ownership “The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 Presidential vote choice, a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories)” (document, page 58)
Party mix of the sampleDemocrats 40, Independents 9, Republicans 50 (PID3). These pages do not say the population is registered voters. “Democrats 40” (document, page 48)
Age mix of the sample18-29: 16; 30-44: 26; 45-64: 33; 65+: 25 “18-29 16” (document, page 50)
Region mix of the sampleMetro area (METRO question): Houston 21; Dallas-Fort Worth 30; San Antonio 10; Austin 9; another part of Texas 31. This is a metro split, not a formal region. “No, I live in another part of Texas 31” (document, page 50)
Ballot question wordingIf the 2026 election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican Greg Abbott”, “the Democrat Gina Hinojosa”, “the Libertarian Pat Dixon”] the Republican Greg Abbott, the Democrat Gina Hinojosa, and the Libertarian Pat Dixon, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-3] “Q24. If the 2026 election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican Greg Abbott”, “the Democrat Gina Hinojosa”, “the Libertarian Pat Dixon”] the Republican Greg Abbott, the Democrat Gina Hinojosa, and the Libertarian Pat Dixon, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-3]” (document, page 33)
Question orderQuestion order note: the survey instruction [RANDOMIZE Q9A-Q9B] appears before Q9A (Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator approval). This shows Q9A and Q9B were randomized. It is not about the Governor ballot question. “[RANDOMIZE Q9A-Q9B]” (document, page 12)
Crosstabsyes “June 2026 Texas Statewide Survey Crosstabs” (document, page 1)
Where respondents came frompanel-vendor “The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel” (document, page 58)

Documents