Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University): 9 May – 19 May 2025

U.S. Senate, general election · registered voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University).

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkwe could not read the age mix of the sample in this poll's documents
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Could not checkwe could not read the weighting in this poll's documents
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed registered voters 533 days before the election
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 11 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,451 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 9 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1451 “YouGov interviewed 1451 registered voters in Texas who were then matched down to a sample” (document, page 24)
Field start date2025-05-09 “conducted a representative survey of 1,200 Texas registered voters from May 9 to 19, 2025.” (document, page 2)
Field end date2025-05-19 “conducted a representative survey of 1,200 Texas registered voters from May 9 to 19, 2025.” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedonline-panel “conducted a representative online survey of 1,200 (margin of error of +/- 2.8%) Texas registered” (document, page 4)
Who was surveyedrv “conducted a representative survey of 1,200 Texas registered voters from May 9 to 19, 2025.” (document, page 2)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error2.8 “conducted a representative online survey of 1,200 (margin of error of +/- 2.8%) Texas registered” (document, page 4)
WeightingNot checked
Party mix of the sampleRepublicans 47%, Democrats 39%, Independents 12%, unsure 2% (survey population of 1,200 Texas registered voters) “Republicans account for 47% of this population, Democrats for 39% and Independents for 12%, with 2% unsure of their partisan identification.” (document, page 4)
Age mix of the sampleNot checked
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Table 6 provides the proportion of respondents supporting President Trump’s job performance overall and in five policy areas, broken down by ethnicity/race, gender, generation, level of educational attainment, partisanship, and 2024 presidential vote.” (document, page 21)
Where respondents came fromNot checked

Documents