Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, general election

Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University): 15 Sep – 19 Sep 2026

U.S. Senate, general election · likely voters · listed by pollresults and votehub. All polls by Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Texas Southern University).

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 5 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,800 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 3 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1800 “conducted a representative survey of 1,800 Texans who are likely to cast a ballot in the November 2026 general election in Texas” (document, page 2)
Field start date2026-09-15 “fielded (in English and Spanish) between September 15 and September 19, 2026 by contacting a” (document, page 2)
Field end date2026-09-19 “fielded (in English and Spanish) between September 15 and September 19, 2026 by contacting a” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedmixed “random sample of registered voters via SMS text messages through which the respondents were” (document, page 2)
Who was surveyedlv “While 87% of likely voters know enough about Patrick to have an opinion of him, only 36% know” (document, page 3)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error2.31 “2026 general election in Texas (margin of error of +/- 2.31%). This probability-based survey was” (document, page 2)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sample49% Republican, 38% Democratic, 9% Independent, 3% other party, 1% unsure “The distribution of partisan identifiers among these likely voters is 49% Republican, 38% Democratic and 9% Independent, with 3% identifying with another party and 1% unsure of their partisanship.” (document, page 4)
Age mix of the sample18-34: 14%; 35-54: 31%; 55+: 55% “One-seventh (14%) of the population is between the ages of 18 and 34, 31% is between the ages of 35 and 54, and 55% is age 55 and older.” (document, page 4)
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderThe survey asked favorability questions about statewide candidates before the vote intention questions. This applies to the U.S. Senate vote intention question. “In the survey, before the respective vote intention questions were asked, these Texas likely voters were queried about whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the 16 statewide Democratic and Republican candidates” (document, page 33)
Crosstabsyes “Table 1: Vote Intention in the Nov. 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Election, Among Key Sub-Groups (%)” (document, page 6)
Where respondents came fromvoter-file “contacting a random sample of registered voters via SMS text messages” (document, page 2)

Documents