Texas poll check

U.S. Senate, Republican primary runoff

University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs: 28 Apr – 1 May 2026

U.S. Senate, Republican primary runoff · likely voters · listed by pollresults. All polls by University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.

Rules

RuleResultWhy
Age mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 8 points. Could not checkno measured benchmark for this state yet
The ballot question's wording may lead respondents. Withhelddecided by a wording judge that is not built or measured
Did not disclose crosstabs. Clearcrosstabs published
Did not disclose its basic method: sample size, field dates and how people were reached. Clearsample size, field dates and mode disclosed
Did not disclose how the sample was weighted. Flagdid not disclose how the sample was weighted
Party mix of the sample differs from the benchmark by more than 6 points. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: party mix of the sample precision 0.67, party mix of the sample recall 0.67
Surveyed registered voters or adults, not likely voters, within 60 days of the election. Clearsurveyed likely voters
Fielded in a single day. Clearfielded over 4 days
Sample is below 400 for a statewide race (300 for a district). Clearsample of 1,200 meets the threshold of 400
Sponsored by a campaign, party or political committee. Withheldextraction accuracy below 0.80: sponsor recall 0.60
First listed more than 21 days after fieldwork ended. Clearfirst listed 4 days after fieldwork ended

What the poll's documents state

FactStatusEvidence
Sample size1200 “The sample population is 1,200 (with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%)” (document, page 2)
Field start date2026-04-28 “Voters were contacted via SMS text message and directed to an online survey platform between April 28 and May 1, 2026. The sample population is 1,200 (with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%) and is” (document, page 2)
Field end date2026-05-01 “Voters were contacted via SMS text message and directed to an online survey platform between April 28 and May 1, 2026. The sample population is 1,200 (with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%) and is” (document, page 2)
How people were reachedmixed “Voters were contacted via SMS text message and directed to an online survey platform between April” (document, page 2)
Who was surveyedlv “Future reports will examine vote intention and voter opinions among likely voters in the May 2026” (document, page 2)
SponsorNot disclosed
Margin of error2.83 “28 and May 1, 2026. The sample population is 1,200 (with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%) and is” (document, page 2)
WeightingNot disclosed
Party mix of the sampleRepublican 76%; Independent 20%; Democrat 1%; something else or unsure 3% “Republicans account for 76% of this population, Independents for 20% and Democrats for 1%, with 3% identifying as something else or being unsure about their partisanship.” (document, page 3)
Age mix of the sample18-34 7%; 35-54 25%; 55+ 68% “More than two-thirds (68%) of these likely voters are age 55 and older, while 25% are between the ages of 35 and 54 and 7% are between the ages of 18 and 34.” (document, page 3)
Region mix of the sampleNot disclosed
Ballot question wordingNot disclosed
Question orderNot disclosed
Crosstabsyes “Table 1 provides the vote intention for the Republican Texas U.S. Senate primary runoff election, broken down by gender, ethnicity/race, age, education, partisan identification, and vote in the March 3 Republican Texas U.S. Senate primary election.” (document, page 7)
Where respondents came fromNot disclosed

Documents